Russia and China keep the West guessing

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, with Russia’s close ties with superpower China under scrutiny.

With ties with the West frayed by the war in Ukraine and global trade disputes, recent meetings between the two leaders have been closely watched for signs they will deepen their respective economic, military and geopolitical cooperation.

Putin, who was greeted by Xi Jinping at a welcome ceremony in Beijing as he began a two-day state visit, said: “It is crucial that the relationship between Russia and China is not opportunistic and not targeted at anyone. Our cooperation in today’s world affairs is one of the main stabilizing factors on the international stage.

The Kremlin said the two leaders would discuss “a range of issues of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction” and were expected to sign a joint statement and bilateral agreements.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Putin told Chinese state media before his visit that “Russia-China relations have reached an all-time high, and relations between the two countries continue to strengthen even in the face of severe international situations.”

Sam Greene, director of the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told CNBC that relations between Russia and China are “inevitable.”

“Calling them strategic partners might be a bit much, but they are aligned strategically in many ways, maybe not entirely by their own decisions, maybe not entirely to their own liking, but inevitably by their decisions. the result of the decision.

“Neither Putin nor Xi Jinping can achieve what they want to achieve domestically and internationally without the support of the other. Having said that, it is not symmetrical, China has more, more options and more, More flexibility,” he added.

There is no doubt that the leaders of Russia and China will emphasize the positives when they meet on Thursday, at the request of Xi Jinping. This is also Putin’s first overseas visit since his fifth re-election as president in March.

The Kremlin said on Thursday that the two leaders “will hold extensive discussions on all issues related to the overall partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China” – although talks between Xi Jinping and Putin and their respective delegations are only expected to last 45 days minute. Later, they will attend celebrations commemorating the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China.

Putin is also expected to meet Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang and travel to the northeastern city of Harbin to attend a trade and investment expo, according to Russian state media.

Analysts expect the latest meeting between the two leaders, more than 40 of which have been held in the past 14 years, to reaffirm their “open-ended” partnership and plans to pursue joint economic projects.

Moscow and Beijing are also likely to reaffirm their fundamental ideological opposition to Western “imperialism” and hegemony in their calls for a multipolar world order. The war in Ukraine – a conflict China calls a “crisis” – may also be on the agenda, with Putin telling Chinese media on Wednesday that he supports a 12-point peace plan better than the one proposed by Beijing last year.

Putin and Xi have developed a close friendship during their respective 24 and 11 years in power, but analysts stress that the relationship is more nuanced than meets the eye.

Natasha Kuhrt, a senior lecturer in war studies at King’s College London, told CNBC on Wednesday: “Essentially, this is not an alliance, but a very multifaceted, multidimensional relationship. Has been established and developed for approximately 30 years.

“It seems that the only basis for this relationship is hostility to the West, which is one component, but there are many other factors that bring them together,” she added.

Coulter pointed out that Russia benefits from China’s continued trade, especially in the energy field, but Beijing also benefits from Russia’s mutual interests in maintaining security and stability in Central Asia, as well as Russia’s military experience and rapid development in the field of defense technology .

“I think it’s a mistake to just think of it as a marriage of convenience because that’s how Westerners have viewed it for a long time, which means we basically underestimate the strength of the relationship,” Coulter said. .

Green, the CEPA analyst, agreed that it would be a mistake to mischaracterize the relationship as unequal and that both Russia and China have benefited greatly from the partnership.

“China derives a lot of material benefits from this relationship,” which allows it to purchase Russian hydrocarbons at preferential prices and gain access to investment opportunities, he said. Green said it also provides Russia with access to the Arctic, a region it covets from both a strategic and trade perspective.

Russia, on the other hand, gets “a lot of rhetoric” and trade from the relationship, “which allows it to keep money flowing into its economy, which is a really crucial task for Putin.”

“But these are not what we would consider preferential or friendly terms, and China continues to drive a hard bargain in all trading relationships,” he noted.

While Russia and China present a united front, there are also disagreements and discomfort among the allies.

Russia’s war in Ukraine, for example, has not been openly criticized by Beijing but has disrupted global alliances and supply chains, unnerving China at a time when its own economy is vulnerable to weak growth and demand.

China’s support for Russia during the war has also made China a target of the United States, which wants to punish countries it sees as helping Moscow circumvent sanctions and trade restrictions.

In early May, the United States imposed sanctions on more than a dozen Chinese companies, accusing them of providing Russia with dual-use parts that could be used in Russian military hardware targeting Ukraine.

Reuters reported that Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, strongly denied any wrongdoing and said that “China firmly opposes the illegal unilateral sanctions by the United States.” Russia has previously denied requesting military equipment and financial assistance from China.

Russia appears to have accepted and ostensibly accepted its economic and political isolation from the West, often praising its economy for overcoming the challenges posed by international sanctions, while China is not yet ready to “decouple” from the West.

“Russia has been making an argument to China for some time that ‘none of us like the structural power of the West in the world… so why don’t we break that, right?’… But China has not yet accepted this proposal,” said CEPA’s Green.

“China is not quite where the West wants it to be rhetorically, but it is not quite where Russia wants it to be rhetorically and politically.”